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This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis.
Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters.
The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.
- Sales Rank: #1249745 in Books
- Published on: 2012-12-16
- Released on: 2012-12-15
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.21" h x .44" w x 6.14" l, .72 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 192 pages
About the Author
Stephen Marrin is a Lecturer in the Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies at Brunel University in London. He has a PhD in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia and is a former Intelligence Analyst in the CIA.
Most helpful customer reviews
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Analysis in Isolation from Reality
By Robert David STEELE Vivas
This book is insanely expensive. The author of the book has material published online that I recommend be accessed and considered before making any investment here. One starting point is my list to 2011 article and my lengthy comment, easily found by looking for
Stephen Marrin: Evaluating the Quality of Intelligence Analysis: By What (Mis) Measure? With Comment by Robert Steele
This is a book, that like economists trapped on a desert island with a can of food and no can-opener, begin their plan with "assume a can-opener." Now having said that, I must also give the author credit: this is as good as it gets at the PhD level when writing in isolation from decades of experience. This is the "clean room" version of the craft of analysis.
Here is a short extract from my review of the article that was built into this book:
ROBERT STEELE: Interesting, certainly worth reading, but divorced from the fundamentals and out of touch with the real masters. Any publication that fails to cite Jack Davis, the dean of analytic tradecraf in the English language, is fatally flawed. Of course it would help if one were also in touch with the "new rules for the new craft of intelligence," but that may be too much to expect from a junior academic with limited real-world analytic experience who seems intent on citing only "approved" sources-a lack of source integrity that is also fatal. The article assumes that the four preconditions for sound analytics exist, and since they do not, at least in the US and UK and most other government intelligence communities, it is necessary to spell them out. Analysts are toads absent the following:
01 All-source collection including open source collection in 183 languages in near real-time-collection that is relevant, timely, and focused, not collection of convenience. It must also comprehend, collect, and present true cost economics with geospatial attributes at every datum point.
02) Back office and desktop analytic tools that integrate in one single open source package the eighteen functionalities identified by Gordon Oehler, Dennis McCormick, Diane Webb, and a handful of others in 1985. This still is not available today-Computer-Aided Tools for the Analysis of Science & Technology (CATALYST).
03) Deep personal knowledge of relevant history, culture, and language(s) pertinent to the matter at hand, and inclusive of a broad globlal multinational, multiagency, multidisciplinary, multidomain information-sharing and sense-making network (M4IS2)-the US security goons are nowhere near being able to comprehend the new security paradigm that demands full-spectrum human intelligence (HUMINT) across all slices, nationalities, and socio-economic ideo-cultural strata; and
04) An analytic model that is holistic, comprehensive, and centered on the public interest, at a minimum integrating the ten high-level threats to humanity, the twelve core policies that must be integrated; and the eight demographic challengers that will define the future with or without the USA. There are at least three models that could be usefully integrated: the revolution model, the expeditionary environment model, and the strategic analytic model.
Somewhat paradoxically, since I emphasize that intelligence (decision-support) is about outputs rather than inputs, it bears mention that the analytic process that produces intelligence is only as good as its inputs, its environment, and its receiving decision-makers. If the receiving decision-maker lacks integrity, then Paul Pillar in Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, 9/11, and Misguided Reform is absolutely right: no amount of intelligence with integrity can overcome policy without integrity, with ONE exception: if the intelligence with integrity is placed immediately and visibly in the public domain.
Jack Davis and his work are easily accessed by searching for the term "analytic tradecraft." My own work in this area over the past 30 years is easily found online, and catalogued at Phi Beta Iota the Public Intelligence Blog. It merits comment that there are eight "tribes" or communities of intelligence as decision-support, and all of them -- a few elements not-withstanding -- are incoherent and ineffective: academic, civil society, commerce, government, law enforcement, media, military, and non-governmental/non-profit. The biggest problem we have is the complete fragmentation of all of the disciplines and sub-disciplines; combine that with the iron curtains among the tribes, the bamboo curtains among organizations within each tribe, and the plastic curtains between individuals, and you have a morass that no amount of good "analytics" is going to master.
I strongly recommend the new book by Routledge, Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies.
Below are nine books I recommend centered on analysis and the pathologies of analysis, all reasonably priced. There is also some good work emerging under the search term "evidence-based".
Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft: Selected Essays (Brassey's Intelligence & National Security Library)
Lost Promise
Informing Statecraft
None So Blind: A Personal Account of the Intelligence Failure in Vietnam
Who the Hell Are We Fighting?: The Story of Sam Adams and the Vietnam Intelligence Wars
Analysis Without Paralysis: 12 Tools to Make Better Strategic Decisions (2nd Edition)
Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments (Praeger Security International)
Best wishes to all,
Robert Steele
THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political--Citizen's Action Handbook for Fighting Terrorism, Genocide, Disease, Toxic Bombs, & Corruption
1 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
A useful, interesting and thought-provoking read
By Aleksandra Bielska
This book by Dr. Stephen Marrin presents a thought-provoking analysis of the current state and potential improvements related to the process of intelligence analysis as practiced within the US Intelligence Community. In addition to the discussion about a 'gap' between a practice of intelligence and related scholarship, the book offers new insights into such issues of interest to Intelligence Studies as a relationship between intelligence and social science, a balance between 'art' and 'science' of intelligence analysis, or problems and challenges connected with a process of intelligence analysis in the context of activities undertaken by individual analysts as well as regarding incorporation of these individual efforts into a broader institutional and organizational context. Dr. Marrin promotes the use of analogical thinking as a way to look at the work of intelligence analysts through a prism of experience accumulated by other academic and professional disciplines. In particular, the author of the book explores analogy between intelligence and a medical profession. In these regards, the included analysis not only leads to conclusions which have a practical application and as such can be of special value to intelligence, it can also serve as an inspiration and a source of methodology-related suggestions to those who would like to look at intelligence from the perspective of a discipline other than medicine or, alternatively, would like to look at their professional experience (assuming their expertise relates to a non-intelligence realm) from the perspective of intelligence. All in all, the book represents a truly useful and interesting read and is worth being recommended to both those familiar with the area of Intelligence Studies as well as those who know little about the field and seek to extend their related knowledge.
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